During his summit with U.S. President Donald Trump in Beijing on Thursday, Chinese President Xi Jingping posed a question: “Can China and the United States transcend the so-called ‘Thucydides trap?’ and forge a new paradigm for major-power relations?” It was the second prominent reference to the ancient Greek general and historian made by a world leader this year, the first being by Prime Minister Mark Carney during his speech at Davos in January. So, why is Thucydides having a political moment, and what makes his writing relevant today?

Who was Thucydides?

Thucydides was a Greek general and historian known for penning the “History of the Peloponnesian War,” an account of the conflict between Sparta and Athens — the two dominant powers of Ancient Greece — that lasted from 431 to 404 BCE.

As a general during the early part of the war, Thucydides was an eyewitness to many events and his writing stands out for being more of a “logical analysis” compared to other writing from the time that leaned on storytelling and mythology, said Michael Carter, a professor in the department of classics and archaeology at Brock University in St. Catharines, Ont.

“It’s very rational, almost scientific in a way,” said Carter. “And in many ways, I would say he’s the first real modern Western historian.”

While the “History of the Peloponnesian War” is considered a foundational work, the man who wrote it is more mysterious. What little is known about Thucydides’ personal life is in his book and, for reasons unknown, his account of the war ends mid-sentence in 411 BCE.

What did Xi say about Thucydides?

During the summit on Thursday, President Xi posed a series of questions to President Trump about future relations between their two countries, including the one referencing the ‘Thucydides trap.’

The term ‘Thucydides trap’ was popularized by political scientist Graham Allison in “Destined for War,” his 2017 book about China–U.S. relations. It the idea that conflict is the likely outcome when a rising power threatens to challenge a ruling one (in the 16 historical examples Allison cites, only four avoid it).

The theory is derived from a line in the “History of the Peloponnesian War”: “It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable,” according to a common translation.

“That’s what Graham Allison’s argument is, that the United States is the hegemon or the leader of the world and then there’s China as a rapidly rising power,” Carter said. “And at one point, something is going to happen and there’s going to be a break.”

In response to his own questions, Xi said the two leaders would have to answer them together.

What did Carney say?

In his speech to the World Economic Forum in Davos in January, Carney also referenced a Thucydides quote.

“It seems that every day we’re reminded that we live in an era of great power rivalry, that the rules-based order is fading, that the strong can do what they can, and the weak must suffer what they must,” Carney said in his remarks.

The line about the strong and weak comes from the Melian dialogue portion of Thucydides’ book and describes the Athenians’ capture of the strategically important island of Melos.

In discussions between the two sides’ leaders, Carter said the Melians’ arguments for why it was unjust to attack an independent state centered around ethics, morality and justice. This didn’t sway their invaders — when the Melians resisted, the Athenians killed all the men and enslaved the women and children.

“What the Athenians are saying to the Melians at this point is, ‘it’s nothing personal. We’re stronger than you and big fish eat little fish, and if you don’t put on your big boy pants and join our empire, we’ll destroy you,’” Carter said.

Why is the ancient historian being referenced now?

Carter said Thucydides is considered the “guiding light” of political realism, the philosophy that states operate out of self-interest and the pursuit of power, not morals or ethics.

In his Davos speech, Carney said Thucydides’ aphorism about the strong and the weak is presented as “inevitable” or the “natural logic” of international relations. But compliance won’t buy safety, he said, urging middle power countries to build strategic autonomy and stating that Canada would pursue a “values-based realism” approach to foreign policy.

Carter said Thucydides’ quote is sometimes misunderstood as an endorsement rather than a historian’s observation about the attitude that led to the decline of a great city-state, which was ultimately defeated by Sparta.

“I think what Thucydides is describing here is the tragedy of Athens and the foreshadowing of the destruction of Athens,” he said.

Carter said the conflict between Sparta and Athens endures as a template for the theory of clashes between great powers because it represents a key theme that historians see repeated: a dominant power challenged by a rising one.

“The remarkable thing is Thucydides knew that, because he understood human nature,” said Carter. “And that’s one of the very first things he says in the book is that, ‘I’m writing this as an example, for all time, because people don’t change, and this will happen again.’”

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