This TSX top performer surged 18% this week with a potentially powerful ‘catalyst’ waiting in the wings, says TD analyst

Which Big Bank price targets moved the most post-earnings, why National Bank says it’s time to lean into dividend payers and more from The Week in Stocks.

Stock of the week: Enerflex Ltd.

Shares of Enerflex Ltd. (EFX:TSX) surged nearly 18 per cent on Thursday, placing it among the top 10 gainers on the S&P/TSX composite index this week after the company beat analysts’ estimates for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) by 15 per cent, TD Cowen analyst Aaron MacNeil said. As a result, he “meaningfully” hiked his price target for Enerflex to $39 from $28 while reconfirming it as his top pick in the energy services sector. Shares closed Friday at $30.61, with the stock up nearly 48 per cent this year. MacNeil said he raised his EBITDA estimates for 2026 and 2027 by seven per cent and 10 per cent, respectively. He also said he believes the shares are undervalued compared with peers and merit a “premium valuation” based on the “growing power demand opportunity and to reflect broader energy sector multiple expansion.” Enerflex will likely hold an investor day in the spring and the analyst thinks that will act as a “catalyst” for the stock. The average 12-month price target based on nine analysts tracked by Bloomberg is $34.35.

Keeping score

Big 6 bank price targets get a rethink post-earnings

Canada’s

Big Six banks

just closed out a fourth-quarter earnings season that was generally well received by Bay Street. The next question for investors is where do the stocks, which helped propel the S&P/TSX composite to a robust gain in 2025, go from here? In a note to investors, RBC Capital Markets analyst Darko Mihelic raised his price estimate for

Toronto-Dominion Bank

(TD:TSX) to $148 from $133 on a “solid” quarter after results came in stronger than expected across multiple sectors. TD shares closed Friday at $132.88. In this low loan-growth environment, Mihelic, in a separate note, said he likes

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce

(CM:TSX), which he described as “better positioned” to manage those challenges. He increased earnings estimates for CIBC and hiked his price target to $158 from $134. CIBC shares closed Friday at $137.79. At the

Bank of Montreal

(BMO:TSX), pre-provision (or before setting aside funds for loan losses), pre-tax earnings were better than expected on “solid revenues and cost discipline,” Mihelic said. Signs of slight worsening in Canadians’ credit quality “have been seen at all banks so far, but outlooks remain positive,” he said. The analyst raised his price for BMO to $219 from $178. BMO shares closed Friday at $196.31. Mike Rizvanoic, an analyst at Scotia Capital Markets, “modestly” moved up his price target for

Royal Bank of Canada

(RY:TSX) to $247 from $242. He said RBC’s lagging share performance compared with its peers on earnings day likely reflected lower increase in earnings per share compared with the whole group and a “tepid approach” to share buybacks. RBC closed Friday at $228.07. On

National Bank of Canada

(NA:TSX), “w

e believe NA put out a very good set of results this quarter,” Rizvanovic said, pointing to a slew of reasons, including a “big beat” in the Canadian personal and commercial loans sector. He raised his price target for National to $202 from $188. Shares closed Friday at $190.37. Finally, TD Cowen analyst Mario Mendonca maintained his price target of $112 for Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS:TSX). Shares closed Friday at $103.44. He said the challenge for Scotiabank is to improve loan growth, especially corporate and commercial and investment banking. 

National Bank’s dividend payer picks could take the sting out of volatility

National Bank Capital Markets said investors might be in the mood for a break from the ongoing market volatility, and it has updated its list of preferred dividend payers for the first half of 2026. “With continued macroeconomic uncertainty and elevated market volatility, dividend stocks could regain favour with investors,” National Bank Research said in a note. To be included on the list, companies need a yield of five per cent or greater, a decent chance of the payout growing and a positive outlook. For the first half, the portfolio of 23 companies has an average yield of 4.8 per cent — lower due to rising share prices — and an average payout ratio of 62.8 per cent. The top five companies based on dividend yield are Automotive Properties REIT (APRU:TSX) with a yield of 7.2 per cent, Alaris Equity Partners Income Trust (AD/U:TSX) at 6.6 per cent, Gibson Energy Inc. (GEI:TSX) at 6.1 per cent,

RioCan REIT

(REI/U:TSX) at 5.9 per cent and Crombie REIT (CRR:TSX) at 5.6 per cent. In the second half of last year, National’s list returned 25.4 per cent — 2.1 per cent income and 23.3 per cent share price appreciation — while the S&P/TSX composite returned 1.4 per cent in income and 15.8 per cent in price over the same period.

Price target hikes

• National Bank Capital Markets analyst Dan Payne hiked his price target for Trican Well Services Ltd. (TCW:TSX) to $8 from $6.50 on the outlook for this year, which includes “ample” free cash flow, declining debt and continued dividends and share buybacks. Shares closed Friday at $6.51.
• CIBC Capital Markets analysts led by Anita Soni hiked their price target for Equinox Gold Corp. to $32 from $26.50 after the company hiked several multiples, including free cash flow per share, based on the mine life of four sites. Shares closed Friday at $25.60.
• BMO Capital Markets analyst Stephen MacLeod hiked his price target for Aritzia Inc. (ATZ:TSX) to $163 from $160 on the belief that the clothing retailer can continue to capitalize on rising growth in the United States. Shares closed Friday at $120.78.
• Raymond James analyst Michael Glen hiked his price target for 5N Plus Inc. (VNP:TSX) to $35 from $29 on “strong growth and success as a critical supplier of niche materials and compounds outside of China.” Shares closed Friday at $29.66.
• RBC Capital Markets analyst Darko Mihelic hiked his price target for EQB Inc. (EQB:TSX) to $131 from $111. “We continue to view the PC Financial acquisition as … the main reason for owning the stock,” he said. Shares closed Friday at $115.32.

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• Email: gmvsuhanic@postmedia.com