It’s turning into a bumpy road to recovery for Canada’s

housing market.

Home sales rose 0.9 per cent in October from the month before, rebounding from a 1.7 per cent decline, according to data from the

Canadian Real Estate Association

out yesterday.

That’s progress from September’s setback, but economists call the momentum “fragile.”

Inventory has been building in the market for two years, especially in Ontario and British Columbia, where homes for sale reached a decades high in the spring,

said Robert Hogue

, assistant chief economist at

Royal Bank of Canada.

However, new listings have now begun to moderate and were down 1.4 per cent nationally in October from the month before.

This moderation comes with a “tentative reprieve” from the price corrections of 2024 and early 2025, he said.

The MLS Home Price Index ticked higher in Ontario in October, including the Greater Toronto Area, and prices stabilized in B.C. for the second month in a row. After six months of declines, prices in Alberta picked up.

However, “we think it’s still too early to determine whether they represent a sustained inflection point, or a temporary pause in a broader downtrend,” said Hogue.

Nationally, prices were up 0.2 per cent in October from the month before, but still down 3 per cent from a year ago and more than 17 per cent below the peak in early 2022,

said Robert Kavcic

, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets.

“This has transitioned from a steep correction to a long and slow grind for Canadian home prices, and we suspect that will continue into 2026,” he said in a note Monday.

Buyers have been kept on the sidelines by higher interest rates and uncertainty over jobs as U.S. President

Donald Trump’s tariffs

rock the economy.

The

Bank of Canada

‘s first interest rate cut in September after a five-month hiatus likely boosted sales last month.

“However, with uncertainty expected to remain elevated, any improvement in the housing market in the coming months is likely to be modest,” said Charles St-Arnaud, chief economist at Alberta Centra.

“The main risk to the housing market remains a deterioration in the labour market, leading to significant job losses.”

National numbers, mind you, don’t tell the whole story of Canadian real estate. Beyond Ontario and B.C., some areas of the country remain firmly “seller friendly,” said Hogue.

Quebec is particularly hot, with Quebec City prices jumping 17.5 per cent in October, the largest increase in the country’s tracked areas. Manitoba, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador are also experiencing tight supply and steady demand, pushing prices higher.

Calgary, the hottest real estate market in the country not so long ago, has cooled significantly. Sales were down 12 per cent in October and prices down 2 per cent.

Ontario and B.C. remain vulnerable.

“In markets with region-specific risks, like Toronto, Windsor, Guelph and others, downward momentum is strong,” said

MortgageLogic.news

strategist Robert McLister.

“Short-term bounces don’t mean a bottom.”

The Last Toy Stores

Have you noticed that your neighourhood Toys “R” Us location has closed, or maybe that it’s up for sale? Well, the team at the Financial Post Western Bureau did, too. They’ve put together a five-part series called The Last Toy Stores exploring the changing landscape of toy retail in Canada as the country’s largest chain shrinks its footprint. You can read the first part, detailing the changes at Toys “R” Us, here, and visit the series home page at Financialpost.com every day this week for a new instalment.

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How Canadian prices grew in October

Statistics Canada released its

consumer price index

for October Monday and the biggest jump on the charts went to telephone services. The 7.9 per cent increase from the year before was the highest since 1982, said BMO Capital Markets chief economist Douglas Porter.

Rent, up 5.2 per cent from 4.8 per cent the month before, was the biggest driver of inflation because of its heavy weight on the consumer price index, said Porter, but Canadians are also paying much more for insurance and property taxes.

Home insurance was up 6.8 per cent over last year and vehicle coverage was up 7.3 per cent. Annual property taxes were up 5.6 per cent and that’s on top of last year’s 30-year high hike of 6 per cent, said Porter.

Food prices, however, pulled back to a 3.4 per cent annual rise from 4 per cent in September, though StatsCan added: “prices remained elevated and have exceeded overall inflation for nine consecutive months.”

  • The Swedish royal family arrives in Ottawa today to begin a three-day state visit alongside a delegation of top government ministers and representatives from dozens of Swedish companies.
  • Prime Minister Carney to visit the UAE and attend the G20 Leaders’ Summit in South Africa
  • Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission (CRTC) is set to release its decision on a new definition of Canadian content today
  • Today’s Data: United States NAHB Housing Market Index
  • Earnings: Home Depot Inc., Medtronic PLC

 

  • Toys ‘R’ Us Canada closes at least 38 stores this year, puts another 12 up for sale
  • Ottawa urged to pause its EV sales mandate until auto sector emerges from turmoil
  • What Canada can learn from Toronto’s little train that couldn’t

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McLister on mortgages

Want to learn more about mortgages? Mortgage strategist Robert McLister’s

Financial Post column

can help navigate the complex sector, from the latest trends to financing opportunities you won’t want to miss. Plus check his

mortgage rate page

for Canada’s lowest national mortgage rates, updated daily.

Financial Post on YouTube

Visit the Financial Post’s

YouTube channel

for interviews with Canada’s leading experts in business, economics, housing, the energy sector and more.

Today’s Posthaste was written by Pamela Heaven with additional reporting from Financial Post staff, Canadian Press and Bloomberg.

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