Canada’s economy

either added hundreds of thousands of

jobs

or flatlined in the months leading up to the end of 2025, according to Oxford Economics Ltd.

This “sharp disagreement” in this critical gauge of the economy’s health stems from differences between the two ways that Statistics Canada measures

employment

, but economists at Oxford say the gloomier outlook likely reflects a more accurate picture of what’s happening on the ground.

“The later release date and narrower scope of the Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours (SEPH) compared to the Labour Force Survey (LFS) means SEPH is often overlooked, even though, in many ways, it provides a more accurate measure of total employment,” economists Tony Stillo and Michael Davenport said in a report.

According to the SEPH, the economy lost 5,000 positions in the six months leading up to November 2025, the most recently available release, while the LFS, adjusted for SEPH concepts, indicated that 200,000 jobs were added during the same period.

Year over year, the economy added 47,000 positions, according to the SEPH, compared with a much meatier 310,000 jobs using LFS metrics, Oxford said.

For January through to November 2025, there was an average gap of 760,000 jobs between the LFS and SEPH total employment, they estimated.

“Although it’s less timely, the SEPH is based on a large survey of actual payrolls and provides a better estimate of job creation, especially during the ongoing demographic shift,” Stillo and Davenport said.

One reason behind the split is that SEPH and the LFS collect data differently.

SEPH data is based on monthly payroll administrative information and surveys of more than 15,000 businesses. The LFS relies on surveys of 65,000 households, with data usually released in the first week following the end of the previous month that is being measured. Its timeliness could explain why it’s more popular with economists.

The LFS also digs deeper into the labour market to provide statistics on total employment, labour force participation, population and

unemployment

, along with detailed labour market indicators by industry, age, gender and region.

However, Stillo and Davenport say the SEPH’s methods make it more “well-grounded.”

Furthermore, they said the LFS’s way of incorporating

population estimates

, which assumes a stable count, could skew its readings, especially when the number of new entrants soared in the wake of the pandemic, but more recently retreated due to shifting government policy.

“We think this unprecedented demographic shift may be leading the LFS to overstate total employment in Canada,” they said.

Stillo and Davenport also said the LFS has flaws when it comes to estimating employment creation by sector.

For example, the LFS showed job gains in November in manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade, accommodation and food services, information, culture and recreation, education and manufacturing, but the SEPH recorded losses compared to the same time a year ago.

The January LFS report, released on Feb. 6, said the economy lost 25,000 positions, while the unemployment rate fell to 6.5 per cent from 6.8 per cent as fewer people looked for work.

The December 2025 SEPH is due out on Feb. 26.

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TFSA vs. RRSP: A wealth-building series from the Financial Post

It’s one of the most important — and sometimes confusing — savings decisions Canadians face, and the right answer depends on far more than a simple rule of thumb. The Financial Post series called

TFSA vs. RRSP

 breaks down the key questions in deciding between the two accounts, including mistakes to avoid and how to get the most bang for your buck.

Read the series here.

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Shopify Inc. says it delivered its highest quarterly revenue in its 20-year history during its fourth quarter, but investors didn’t seem very impressed despite it also beating analysts’ revenue expectations.

The Ottawa-based e-commerce platform company said revenue for the three months ending Dec. 31, 2025, was US$3.67 billion, up 31 per cent from US$2.81 billion a year earlier, helped by continued growth in its core United States market and key international markets such as Europe. Analysts were expecting US$3.6 billion in fourth-quarter revenue. — Yvonne Lau, Financial Post

Read the full story here.

  • Today’s data: U.S. initial and continuing jobless claims, existing home sales
  •  Earnings: Fortis Inc., Telus Corp., Bombardier Inc., Brookfield Corp., H&R Investment Real Estate Trust, Canadian Apartment Properties, Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd., CAE Inc., Air Canada, Electrovaya Inc., Trisura Group Ltd., Tucows Inc.


  • How Canada’s nation-building push could still get stuck in regulatory limbo
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  • Garry Marr: Say no to a free lunch for your RRSP today, expect fewer menu options at retirement


At 69 and 73 respectively, this B.C. couple are just about to start withdrawing from their investment nest egg to fund their lifestyle. Up until this summer, one of them worked part time, earning about $3,000 a month. She wants to replace that earned income with investment income, but is concerned they may not have enough savings to meet their needs long-term. Keep reading Family Finance to find out more.

Interested in energy? The subscriber-only FP West: Energy Insider newsletter brings you exclusive reporting and in-depth analysis on  one of the country’s most important sectors.

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Are you worried about having enough for retirement? Do you need to adjust your portfolio? Are you starting out or making a change and wondering how to build wealth? Are you trying to make ends meet? Drop us a line at wealth@postmedia.com with your contact info and the gist of your problem and we’ll find some experts to help you out while writing a Family Finance story about it (we’ll keep your name out of it, of course).

McLister on mortgages

Want to learn more about mortgages? Mortgage strategist Robert McLister’s

Financial Post column

can help navigate the complex sector, from the latest trends to financing opportunities you won’t want to miss. Plus check his

mortgage rate page

for Canada’s lowest national mortgage rates, updated daily.

Financial Post on YouTube

Visit the Financial Post’s

YouTube channel

for interviews with Canada’s leading experts in business, economics, housing, the energy sector and more.

Today’s Posthaste was written by Gigi Suhanic with additional reporting from Financial Post staff and Bloomberg.

Have a story idea, pitch, embargoed report, or a suggestion for this newsletter? Email us at 

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  • Posthaste: Debt loads hit record as Canadians in financial distress pile loans on top of loans
  • Posthaste: Canada’s pension gap threatens retirement security for millions of Canadians

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