Canada’s

immigration targets

are likely to be higher than what the government’s headline number seems to suggest due to a couple of one-time programs that Ottawa plans to implement in the coming years.

As per the new immigration targets that were

released along with the budget

on Tuesday,

Canada will aim to add

380,000 permanent residents annually from 2026 to 2028. The targets are similar to those proposed last year under the Immigration Levels Plan

—

395,000 permanent residents in 2025, 380,000 in 2026 and 365,000 in 2027.

However, in addition to the annual 380,000 target, Canada aims to provide permanent residency to 33,000

temporary foreign workers

and 115,000 categorized as “Protected Persons in Canada” within the next three years, according to Budget 2025.

These groups already reside in Canada, and providing them with permanent residency

—

which eventually paves the way to citizenship

—

won’t increase the

country’s overall population

. However, adding them to the headline number would essentially raise

Canada’s annual immigration targets

by at least 148,000 across three years.

Rémi Larivière, a spokesperson for Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, confirmed in a statement that the one-time programs would be “in addition to the Levels target.”

The 33,000 work-permit holders will be workers who have “established strong roots in their communities,” including those who are “contributing to key sectors in rural (areas),” said Larivière.

The 115,000 people in the protected persons group are not like international students or foreign workers, who are on time-bound temporary permits, the IRCC official said. “Prioritizing their admissions as permanent residents over the next two years will ensure that those in genuine need of Canada’s protection have their permanent status recognized,” Larivière said.

Excluding these numbers from the yearly 380,000 target, which already brings in people through four categories

—

economic, family, refugees and humanitarian

—

surprised some analysts.

“I can’t figure out why they aren’t in the plan if the plan is meant to be accurate,” said Steven Meurrens, an immigration lawyer and a partner at Larlee Rosenberg. “It completely changes the overall number.”

Bank of Nova Scotia economist Rebekah Young said a key value in the immigration plan is transparency in numbers, so communities can plan. “It is important to clarify these details either way,” she said.

Immigration has traditionally played a key role in

Canada’s economy

. As such, Ottawa announces an annual Levels plan that provides a forward-looking snapshot of immigration targets for the next three years. The plan works as a guide for the federal government.

For most of the past decade, Canada’s annual immigration targets were either stable or reported minor increases. For example, the targets ranged between 250,000 and 350,000 newcomers each year between 2015 and 2022.

From 2023 onwards, however, the targets jumped to between 450,000 and 500,000 due to a labour shortage following the pandemic that left the country with hundreds of thousands of jobs to fill.

But with the number of available jobs declining and concerns about the housing crisis growing, the federal government in 2024 decided to pause population growth and reduce the permanent residency targets to 395,000 in 2025, 380,000 in 2026 and 365,000 in 2027. 

Ottawa’s immigration plans this year also has targets for temporary residents, which includes foreign students and workers. The number of people arriving under this category will decline from 673,650 in 2025 to 385,000 in 2026, and 370,000 in 2027 and 2028.

This move is part of the federal government’s goal to decrease the proportion of temporary residents from about 7.5 per cent to five per cent of the overall population. In absolute numbers, Ottawa aims to bring in 155,000 students in 2026, 150,000 in 2027 and 2028. The rest of the temporary residents will mostly be foreign workers.

The decision to focus more on workers as opposed to students may be a better proposition for the Canadian economy in the nearer term, but it could “damage the future pipeline of talent,” said Cynthia Leach, an economist at the Royal Bank of Canada.

Scotiabank’s Young said that the weak economy and the lack of jobs means that the government has that “window” right now to proceed towards its five per cent target by cutting the number of students.

  • Opinion: How Canada can turn the U.S. brain drain into economic gain
  • Canada’s population growth has stalled. Here’s what it means for the economy

• Email: nkarim@postmedia.com