Patience will be key for Canadians seeking a rate cut as the

Bank of Canada

continues to search for direction

on tariffs,

the economy and inflation, economists said after policymakers held

interest rates

for the third consecutive time on Wednesday.

There are three remaining opportunities for the Bank of Canada to make a move on rates this year, with announcements scheduled for Sept. 17, Oct. 29 and Dec. 10.

Here’s where economists think the Bank of Canada could go with rates before 2025 is over.

‘Zero guarantees’: BMO

“The tone of the (Bank of Canada) statement and governor

(Tiff) Macklem

‘s remarks suggest that the (Bank of Canada) is perfectly comfortable holding rates here for now,” Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets, said in a note, adding that rates are at the midpoint of the central bank’s neutral range of 2.25 per cent to 3.25 per cent.

Still, he said policymakers were keeping the “door fully open” to a rate cut if the economy weakens and inflation from tariffs is corralled.

“Of course, there are zero guarantees, given the intense trade uncertainty and risks, but the (Bank of Canada) also noted that it will be nimble — ‘looking over a shorter horizon than usual, and be ready to respond to new information,’” Porter said.

In its Monetary Policy Report released alongside the rate decision, policymakers pencilled in a baseline forecast for

gross domestic product

to contract 1.5 per cent in the second quarter.

The Bank of Canada said it estimates underlying inflation currently stands at around around 2.5 per cent, but it expects it to moderate.

Although the Bank of Canada hinted at more willingness to contemplate a rate cut, Porter said he thinks policymakers will need to see two more friendly inflation reports before making a move.

“That may be a tall hurdle, so those looking for cuts may need to pack their patience,” he said.

‘Patient before acting’: Alberta Central

“The overall message from today’s decision is that the

Canadian economy

has shown resilience to the U.S. tariffs,” Charles St-Arnaud, chief economist at credit union Alberta Central, said in a note.

He believes the Bank of Canada’s statement and press conference that it is of the mind to be “patient before acting,” even though policymakers have now indicated “some willingness” to trim rates if inflation cools.

The Bank of Canada’s preferred measures of core inflation this month came in just above the top end of the target range of one per cent to three per cent.

St-Arnaud said the Bank of Canada is currently balancing opposing forces on inflation: on one hand, tariffs implemented by the United States are slowing growth and inflation, but uncertainty, supply chain disruptions and retaliatory tariffs could work in the opposite direction.

“It remains clear that the (Bank of Canada) continued to put more weight on current inflation than on future inflation, and that it would be a mistake to think the (Bank of Canada) will lean toward supporting the economy and allow inflation to move above the target,” he said.

Overall, interest rates are headed lower, but core inflation is expected to remain above the Bank of Canada’s target.

St. Arnaud thinks a rate in October is more likely than September.

September meeting ‘live’: National Bank of Canada

“Data dependence continues to define the policy rate path,” Taylor Schleich and Ethan Currie, economists at

National Bank of Canada

, said in a note.

They said September’s interest rate meeting will be “live,” but that neither the Bank of Canada’s statement nor Macklem’s statements at the press conference should lead anyone to think that a rate cut is imminent.

If a cut “were to materialize,” data would need to align, including a cooling of core inflation and a slowing in both the economy and the jobs market.

“Our base case outlook is consistent with further monetary policy easing, although there’s a chance we’ll have to wait until Q4 to see another cut,” Schleich and Currie said.

• Email: gmvsuhanic@postmedia.com