United States President Donald Trump rattled Canada’s economic foundations again this week by threatening new tariffs of 50 per cent on Canadian exports that are likely to hit the economies of British Columbia, Ontario and Quebec the hardest, says one economist.

The tariffs, which are set to take effect on Aug. 19, would hit about 13 per cent of B.C.’s total exports, nine per cent of Ontario’s and 10 per cent of Quebec’s, Bryan Yu, chief economist at Central 1 Credit Union in Vancouver, said in a note on July 23.

“The goods impacted are relatively wide-reaching,” he said.

They stretch from alcohol and dairy to other subgroups including cement, hockey sticks, furniture, electronics, clothing and florals, which are “predominantly” exported from the three provinces, he said.

Andrew Hencic, a senior economist at TD Economics, said in a note on Tuesday that the tariff’s targets, which are in response to bans on U.S. alcohol, Canadian auto tariffs and the dispute over access to the dairy industry, were chosen “where demand is going to be highly responsive to the new duties.”

Yu said he expects B.C.’s wine industry to take a hit, as well as the province’s wood fibre and plywood sectors, but the overall impact on exports will be more muted compared with central Canada since B.C. only sends about 50 per cent of its international goods south of the border, while Ontario and Quebec send about 70 per cent of exports to the U.S.

China, South Korea, Japan and Asia in general are larger trading partners for B.C. compared with other provinces, which Yu said will help shield it from some of the tariffs, while its service trade in the form of, say, tourism will also act as something of a shield, Yu said.

In Ontario , some industries that could be exposed include electronics manufacturers and companies that make components for electrical equipment.

Of all the provinces, Alberta sends the largest share of its exports — 85 per cent and mostly energy — to the U.S., but energy was exempt from the latest tariff threat. Potash and critical minerals were exempt, too.

Yu estimates the new tariffs could affect $31-billion worth of goods.

Tariffs won’t be stacked on top of others affecting steel and aluminum, but targeted goods won’t be protected by the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement , which has so far allowed Canadian exports to have among the lowest tariff rates.

Canada’s average U.S. tariff rate could jump to about six per cent from five per cent, but that would still be among the lowest globally, though “highly damaging at an industry level,” Yu said.

He said more Canadian companies could be forced to move their production stateside to keep their businesses viable if the tariffs come to pass.

“If it does go forward, it does cut off the U.S. as an export market for some products that are domestically produced, and it will also mean that for some of these producers, they’ll need to look at different ways to stay in that U.S. market, either by shifting their production over or opening up new manufacturing plants there,” he said.

  • ‘A pretty strange list’: What Canadians need to know about Trump’s new 50% tariffs and the claims used to justify them
  • William Watson: Remember, Trump too will pass

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Canada’s retail sales rose for the fifth straight month in May, with gains posted across the board.

The data, published by Statistics Canada Thursday, showed total retail sales increased by one per cent to $73.7 billion that month. In volume terms, sales were up 0.3 per cent.

“Consumer spending remained resilient in the face of the global oil price shock in May.… The advance was in line with StatCan’s flash estimate and our expectations, and supported by another large increase in pump prices,” said Michael Davenport, senior Canada economist at Oxford Economics, in a note on Thursday.

“(June’s estimate) likely reflects a bump in spending from the federal grocery and essentials benefit, which has long been factored into our forecast.” — Paula Tran, Financial Post

Read the full story here.

  • Today’s Data: Bloomberg July Canada economic survey, industrial product price and raw materials price index, S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing and Services PMI, U.S. new home sales, Kansas City Fed Services activity, U.S building permits.
  • Earnings: Canadian National Railway Co., Verizon Communications Inc., American Express Co.

  • ‘A pretty strange list’: What Canadians need to know about Trump’s new 50% tariffs and the claims used to justify them
  • Labour productivity increases with age in Canada — until it doesn’t
  • How Alberta won the data infrastructure race New York just lost

An Ontario woman and her husband would like to draw up new wills to leave whatever they have to their son, while also ensuring that the husband’s two daughters from a previous relationship are not beneficiaries of the couple’s estate. What can they do to ensure that any contesting of their wills is unlikely to succeed? FP Answers has some suggestions

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Today’s Posthaste was written by Gigi Suhanic with additional reporting from Financial Post staff and Bloomberg.

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