The 2026 FIFA World Cup, now less than two weeks away, was promised to be an economic boon for Canada, but it may not be all it’s cracked up to be.

Toronto and Vancouver play host to a combined 13 games at this year’s World Cup, with the first game on June 12 when Canada faces off against Bosnia and Herzegovina.

The Parliamentary Budget Officer in May estimated that total government support for the 13 games amounts to $1.07 billion, or about $82 million per match.

The British Columbia government now estimates the seven games in Vancouver could cost taxpayers upwards of $729 million, while the City of Toronto in April said its games would cost about $380 million.

Despite the massive taxpayer capital tied up in the tournament, it remains to be seen whether the Canadian economy will truly benefit.

Canadian bar and restaurant spending increased by 10 per cent during the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, according to a 2023 report by Moneris Solutions Corp., but as the Bank of Montreal points out, only a portion of the spending boost this time around can be seen as a benefit.

“The gain will be temporary, and only spending by international travellers can be considered a net benefit, since residents will be largely diverting money that would otherwise have been spent on other activities or at other times,” BMO analysts said in a note this week.

BMO estimates Canada stands to benefit by between $1 billion and $5 billion from tourism related to the World Cup, while residents will spend an estimated $500 million to $1.5 billion. This translates to gross domestic product growth of about 0.1 points.

But given the large upfront public cost of hosting, BMO worries most of the taxpayer funding in Toronto and Vancouver will benefit private companies.

“Most of the economic gains flow to the private sector, while the public sector in Toronto and Vancouver will absorb a disproportionate share of the financial risk,” the BMO analysts said. “This misalignment between who pays and who benefits lies at the core of the cost/reward challenge for Canadian host cities.”

Meanwhile, most small businesses are struggling to see a benefit, with 58 per cent of them not expecting the tournament to have any material impact on revenues compared to a typical summer, according to a recent survey by Merchant Growth Ltd.

Even though more than a fifth of Canadians plan to watch World Cup games at a local establishment, many places don’t have the budget to prepare for an increase in foot traffic.

“The World Cup is a major economic moment, but it will not benefit every small business equally,” David Gens, chief executive of Merchant Growth, said in a news release. “Businesses with the right location, staffing and cash flow may be able to turn increased consumer activity into revenue, but for many owners, rising operating costs and tight margins mean they are being cautious about investing ahead of the opportunity.”

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Rio Tinto Group’s shipments of aluminum to the U.S. have rebounded to levels seen before President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

The White House hiked the levy on the metal to 50 per cent last year, pushing Rio Tinto to sell more of its Canadian-produced aluminum in the European market. In turn, North America shipments — headed mostly to the U.S. — fell to the mid-60 per cent range. Flows are now back to about 80 per cent, the producer’s aluminum chief said.

“We progressively came back to the pretariff situation — meaning the U.S. represents the vast majority of our sales from Canada today,” Jérôme Pécresse, who heads Rio’s aluminum business, said in an interview. — Bloomberg

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Today’s Posthaste was written by Ben Cousins with additional reporting from Financial Post staff and Bloomberg.

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