Canada’s population is expected to surpass 57 million by 2075, according to a new analysis from Statistics Canada that takes into account the country’s declining immigration rates. The country’s population was last estimated at 41.7 million on July 1, 2025. Here’s why Canada’s population is still expected to grow, and which provinces are forecasted to see more growth than others.

How much could Canada’s population grow?

Statistics Canada

provided three main

population growth

scenarios: high-growth, medium-growth and low-growth.

Demographer Jonathan Chagnon at the agency said high-growth scenarios account for the most positive factors and low-growth scenarios conversely look at the least positive factors.

“The medium scenario is like the middle of everything,” Chagnon said. “If you have to look at only one scenario, that will be the one to look at.”

According to the medium-growth forecast,

Canada’s population

could climb by 15.7 million to reach 57.4 million in 2075.

Under the agency’s low-growth reading, the population would only increase by about 2 million to reach 44 million. At the other end of the spectrum, Statistics Canada projects the population could surge by 34.1 million to hit 75.8 million in its high-growth scenario.

The agency also expects that after an average 1.23 per cent growth rate over the next 25 years, Canada’s annual rate would decline to 0.67 per cent by 2074/2075, in its medium-growth scenario. This projected growth rate turns negative in the low-growth scenario (-0.01 per cent) but rises slightly in its high-growth forecast (1.34 per cent).

Chagnon said the agency previously used to release its population growth projections every five years but has recently started to revisit these figures on an annual basis.

Canada’s demographic composition has shifted dramatically within the past five years following the COVID-19 pandemic, due to a combination of factors, such as

changing immigration policy

, interprovincial migration and fertility and mortality rates, Chagnon said.

There are some demographic changes every cycle, but last year brought about a marked shift in immigration policy which put a dent in population growth projections, he said.

“Two cycles ago, in June 2024,

immigration was going much higher

, so our (population) projections were higher,” Chagnon said. “Now we see a

slowdown in immigration

and a slowdown in non-permanent residents.”

In 2024, prior to changes in immigration policy, Statistics Canada projected Canada could have 63 million inhabitants by 2073
 i
n a medium-growth scenario
. In 2025, this declined to 59.3 million by 2074.
 

Which provinces will grow the fastest?

Chagnon said interprovincial migration is a key indicator when forecasting and comparing provincial population growth.

Alberta’s population growth is expected to remain positive in all scenarios, overtaking British Columbia’s population for third place in almost all scenarios as well. For instance, in 2025, Alberta had about 5.03 million people and could reach about 7.22 million by 2050 in a medium-growth scenario,

according to statistics Canada

. B.C. sat at about 5.70 million in 2025 and could reach 6.59 million by 2050 in the same scenario.

“In the recent past, in general, (Alberta has) been welcoming more people than (it lost) people to other provinces,” Chagnon said.

Alberta’s demographic weight (or population as a percentage of the entire country’s population), which was about 12 per cent in 2025, is expected to climb to between 13.5 to 16 per cent by 2050, he said.

Some provinces also tend to see a greater influx of immigrants from other parts of the world, as people tend to follow economic opportunities or move to where there are already established cultural communities, Chagnon said. Non-permanent residents on study permits, he added, are more likely to move to provinces with higher concentrations of universities.

“Traditionally, Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia have always welcomed more immigrants than other provinces,” Chagnon said. “It’s changing now.”

Alberta has joined these ranks in recent years, drawing more immigrants as well.

Which provinces could see a slowdown?

Under all projection scenarios, Statistics Canada forecasts Ontario and Quebec would remain the most populous provinces in the country over the next 25 years.

However, Quebec’s demographic weight, which was 21.7 per cent in 2025, is expected to decline to between 18.1 per cent and 19.1 per cent by 2050, Chagnon said.

“The demographic weight of Quebec has been slowly going down over the decades, but we’re reaching a point now that (could move to) under 20 per cent of the Canadian population, and other provinces are slowly (catching) up,” he said.

Chagnon noted Quebec has been steadily losing more people to other provinces. The province’s

immigration rules

also differ from those of the rest of the country, and it recently cut its immigration targets for permanent residents in November.

Quebec isn’t the only province expected to see a population decline. Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador’s demographic weight are also projected to decrease over the next 25 years, Chagnon added.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the Atlantic provinces welcomed more people moving from other provinces, though the most recent data shows this interprovincial migration has slowed down, he said.

What is driving Canada’s overall population growth?

Chagnon said Statistics Canada consulted demographers around the country and surveyed them for their views on growth components (immigration, mortality, fertility) over the next 25 years. The agency used this information, as well as recent trends and immigration policy changes, to produce its longer-term projections.

The fertility rate in Canada (and many other parts of the world) has been declining. And combined with an aging population, the natural growth rate would be flat or even negative, Chagnon said.

Therefore much of Canada’s population growth is driven by immigration, said Chagnon. In 25 years, the proportion of immigration is projected to be slightly lower than it has been in recent years, but “would stay pretty stable,” he said.

The agency projects the number of immigrants will decline until 2032 when it will start to increase once more, Chagnon said.

As the Canadian government seeks to draw down the proportion of non-permanent residents from more than seven per cent to five per cent, this will put downward pressure on population growth as well.

Still, in the medium-growth scenario, after Canada hits the five per cent target, the population of non-permanent residents will steadily grow by about 0.7 per cent each year, Chagnon said..

Though immigration levels likely won’t surge to the heights seen during the COVID-19 pandemic, the demographers surveyed told Statistics Canada they still expect to see stable growth in the future due to Canada’s aging population, Chagnon said.

“We’ve always been a country of immigration, and that’s what we see for the next 25 years or 50 years,” Chagnon said.

• Email: slouis@postmedia.com