The stunning removal of Nicolás Maduro by United States forces is not unprecedented. In 
relatively recent times, the United States has effected regime change in Panama and Iraq, as well as
sending troops into Grenada. But after the National Security Strategy released late last year, 
Venezuela marks a watershed moment in hemispheric geopolitics.
 

For policymakers, it raises familiar questions about sovereignty, international law and 
precedent. For Canadian business leaders, the more pressing question is practical: What does 
this mean for how we invest, trade, price risk and plan for an increasingly unstable world?
 

The short answer is that Venezuela is less the story than the signal. What matters is not simply 
that a long-standing authoritarian regime has fallen, but how it fell — and what that tells us about 
the environment in which Canadian firms will operate over the next decade.
 

For much of the post–Cold War era, businesses could reasonably assume that geopolitical 
shocks would be constrained by multilateral norms and rules-based institutions. That 
assumption has been eroding for years. Venezuela accelerates the trend. 
 

The U.S. administration’s decision to remove Maduro underscores a reality Canadian 
companies must now internalize: major powers (the U.S., Russia and China) are increasingly willing 
to act unilaterally when they judge their interests to be at stake. Whether one views the outcome 
in Venezuela as justified or destabilizing, the precedent matters. President Trump has not 
spoken of restoring democracy to Venezuela. Indeed, he explicitly sanctioned the succession of 
Maduro’s own vice-president. So this was not about ideology or democracy. Instead, the p
resident highlighted control of Venezuela’s oil as justification for his actions.
 

For companies, this means that geopolitical risk belongs alongside interest rates, supply chains, 
cyber risk and climate transition on the core risk register.
 

A lot of attention will focus on energy. Venezuela’s heavy crude resembles Canadian oil sands 
production, and a revived Venezuelan industry could eventually compete for U.S. Gulf Coast 
refinery demand. But “eventually” is the key word. Years of underinvestment, sanctions and 
infrastructure decay mean any meaningful production recovery will take time.
 

That said, Canadian energy producers and policy-makers should not be complacent. The 
lesson is not about Venezuela per se; it is about optionality. Dependence on a single market, 
even one we think is friendly, creates vulnerability. The more uncertain the geopolitical 
environment becomes, the more valuable diversified market access, transportation routes and 
customer bases will be.
 

Canadian firms that can demonstrate cost discipline, reliability of supply and credible transition 
strategies will be best positioned in an increasingly risky environment.
 

For decades, Canadian pension funds, banks, engineering firms and resource companies built 
sophisticated expertise in managing political risk in “emerging markets.” That risk is now 
abundant in the U.S., as we have witnessed over the past year. In addition, the renewed chatter 
about taking over Greenland forces Canadians to think carefully about what a U.S. president 
could do who wanted to confiscate our resources, or territory. Far-fetched? Not long ago that 
was true. Today, not so clear.
 

Sanctions can be imposed or lifted quickly. Assets can be frozen. Contracts can be rewritten.
 

Alliances can shift. All of this can happen faster than corporate investment committees are accustomed to reacting.

Canada has long supported democratic change in Venezuela but did not endorse the 
intervention, much as the Chretien government did not endorse the invasion of Iraq in 2003.
 

That nuance matters. Canadian firms often benefit from the country’s reputation as a principled, 
rules-oriented middle power. Preserving that advantage requires discipline: aligning commercial 
strategy with Canada’s broader diplomatic posture, not simply following the gravitational pull of 
U.S. policy.
 

This is not about distancing ourselves from our largest trading partner. It is about recognizing 
that Canada’s value proposition abroad — especially in complex regions — rests on credibility, 
predictability, and trust.
 

The fall of Maduro is not a call to retreat from global markets. It is a call to engage with eyes open.

Canadian businesses, even those that do business solely in North America must elevate 
geopolitical risk to a matter of ongoing concern. They should stress-test investment strategies 
against abrupt political shifts. They must diversify — reducing over-concentration in any single 
market or policy regime.
 

The era ahead will reward companies that are agile, diversified and clear-eyed about power 
politics. Venezuela is a reminder that the world is not becoming simpler or safer — but that 
foresight, prudence and adaptability remain competitive advantages.
 

  • ‘We need to move’: Moe says Canada now in a race with Venezuela to find new markets for oil
  • Opinion: Venezuela’s oil not much use without trust in its government

For Canadian business, the lesson is not fear. It is preparedness.

 John Manley is the chair of Jefferies Securities and a former senior federal cabinet minister.