Canada’s benchmark index hit a new record this week, while a “game changer” discovery drove analysts to raise their price targets on a well-known Canadian miner. Meanwhile, the market cheered on a bold move by a U.S. tech juggernaut. The Financial Post explores those stories and more in The Week in Stocks.

Stock of the week: Barrick Mining Corp.

A significant gold discovery announced by Barrick Mining Corp. (TSX: ABX) at its Fourmile project in Nevada propelled the company’s Toronto-listed shares to a 13-year high. Barrick’s preliminary economic assessment said the mine could reach “globally significant” average production of 600,000 to 750,000 ounces of gold per year. The discovery is a “game changer” for Barrick, TD Cowan analyst Steven Green said in a note, adding that Barrick’s stock has “significant room to catch up on valuation given its underperformance in recent years.” Matthew Murphy at BMO Capital Markets valued Fourmile at US$9.2 billion, up US$6 billion from an earlier estimate. Several analysts raised their price targets following Barrick’s Fourmile update and an investor site visit to NGM, including TD Cowan (from US$30 to US$38), Scotiabank (from US$26 to US$27.50), RBC (from US$34 to US$38) and BMO (from C$37 to C$41). On Friday, Barrick shares were up 116 per cent year-to-date and closed Friday at C$48.

TSX touches 30,000

The S&P/TSX Composite index hit a new record, surpassing 30,000 for the first time on Sept. 23 before pulling back later in the day. Strong performance by index heavyweight Shopify Inc. (TSX: SHOP) and a “180-degree turnaround” from Toronto-Dominion Bank (TSX: TD) helped the benchmark’s momentum, Brian Madden, chief investment officer at First Avenue Investment Counsel Inc., told the Financial Post. The main driver moving the TSX higher was gold, he said, as it has been “all year long.” However, Madden said it is not necessarily indicative of what lies ahead. Curious about what “round number milestones” mean for future returns, First Avenue looked at every time the TSX grew by one thousand points between 1,000 and 10,000, as well as the 15,000 and 20,000 marks. In the 12 months following those 12 events, the results varied widely — from 30 per cent losses to 26 per cent gains — but TSX posted an average return of just 0.8 per cent and a median return of 4.4 per cent. As of Friday, the S&P/TSX Composite was up 20 per cent year-to-date and closed Friday at 29,761.
 

How high can this haven asset go?

Gold bullion prices are up 42 per cent in 2025, hitting a record US$3,800 per ounce before retreating, while the S&P/TSX Venture Gold (Sub Industry) index was up 110 per cent over the past year. David Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research & Associates Inc., said in a Sept. 17 note that there are both fundamental and technical reasons to be bullish, including gold’s positive correlation to economic uncertainty, inverse correlation to real interest rates and the U.S. dollar and the fact that it has hit new highs in every major currency. Rosenberg said a critical source of demand is the “deep pockets” of central banks, who are reversing course after “winding down their bullion reserves” in the 1980s and 1990s. “Back in 1980, the FX reserve share of gold in central bank vaults stood at 70 per cent; by the late 1990s, down to 10 per cent; and today, it is just over 20 per cent,” Rosenberg wrote. “If this share mean-reverts to 30 per cent, we are talking about gold going to $4,500 per ounce … and to over $6,000 if we ever do go back to that 70 per cent share.” The spot price of gold was hovering around US$3,676 per ounce on Friday afternoon.
 

Why Nvidia’s massive OpenAI investment garnered cheers and fears

Nvidia Corp. shares gained almost four per cent on Monday on the company’s announcement that it plans to invest up to US$100 billion in OpenAI Inc. to help it build data centres powered by millions of Nvidia graphics processing units (GPUs). UBS Global Research said in a note the partnership solidifies Nvidia’s dominance in the AI field and could translate into US$400 billion in revenue over several years, depending on OpenAI’s plans. Right now, details are scarce as Nvidia and OpenAI are still negotiating details. At a time when AI bubble fears are circulating, the deal raises “circular” concerns that Nvidia is a “vendor financing its own demand,” Jay Goldberg from Seaport Research Partners said in a note. Goldberg maintained his “sell” rating on Nvidia and kept his price target at US$100. Several analysts maintained their price targets for Nvidia, including UBS (US$205), Morgan Stanley & Co. (US$210), Bank of America Securities (US$235) and Bernstein Research (US$225). Evercore Inc. raised its target from US$214 to US$225, while Barclays Bank raised its price target from US$200 to US$240. Nvidia shares closed at US$178 on Friday and are up 32 per cent so far this year.

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• Email: jswitzer@postmedia.com