Canada’s

unemployment rate

will continue to climb as

Donald Trump’s tariff war

batters sectors and regions reliant on trade, says RBC.

Uncertainty about tariffs has curbed hiring across the economy, but actual job losses have been mainly concentrated in trade-related sectors and the provinces that house them, said

Royal Bank of Canada

economist Rachel Battaglia

in a report out yesterday. 

Manufacturing, resource industries, transportation and warehousing have suffered the biggest employment declines. Trade uncertainty is driving much of this, but volatile commodity prices and a slowdown in home construction are also contributing, she said.

Ontario, a centre for Canada’s manufacturing workforce

, has accounted for 60 per cent of the climb in the unemployment rate over the past 12 months, said RBC.

The weakness has been especially focused in southwestern Ontario, where most of the manufacturing takes place. Four of the five highest unemployment rates in the country are in this region, with Windsor leading the way at 11.2 per cent.

The auto city is followed by Peterborough at 10 per cent, Oshawa at 9.3 and Toronto at 8.7. Canadian manufacturing has shed nearly 45,000 jobs since January — the largest employment decline of any sector  — and these regions make up almost a quarter of that workforce, said Battaglia.

A report by the

Financial Accountability Office of Ontario

this spring predicted that U.S. tariffs would result in 68,100 fewer jobs in the province this year and 119,200 fewer in 2026. The trade war is expected to raise Ontario’s unemployment rate by over a percentage point to average 7.7 per cent over the next four years.

Windsor is expected to take the biggest hit, followed by Guelph, Brantford, Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo and London as these cities have more export-focused manufacturing than other centres in the province, the report said.

Quebec, home to 30 per cent of Canada’s manufacturing workforce, and British Columbia have also added to the rise in the

unemployment rate

, but Atlantic Canada has shown “remarkable resilience,” said Battaglia.

A region traditionally known for higher unemployment, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick’s jobless rates fell below the national average in the second quarter.

Other evidence of the trade war’s impact shows up in the demographics of labour market weakness.

Workers aged 45 and older accounted for almost 40 per cent of the unemployment rate gains over the past year, said RBC.

The Canadian-born workforce are also facing more challenges than newcomers, and are driving about 60 per cent of the unemployment rate increase.

These trends mark a shift from recent years, when new entrants to the job market were having the hardest time finding employment, and Battaglia said this too is likely related to the trade war.

“Goods-producing sectors employ a disproportionately high share of late career-aged workers, making them particularly vulnerable to current economic headwinds,” she said.

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Canadians still have their elbows up, according to an Angus Reid Institute poll on how trade negotiations with the United States should be handled.

Three in five Canadians said the country should take a “hard approach” in trade talks, while just 37 per cent prefer the “soft” approach, as today’s chart shows.

More Canadians than not were willing to dump the digital services tax, saying the duty, that was axed after talks stalled, was a non-starter for a deal.

But they have stronger feelings about supply management, with half of Canadians saying

Mark Carney’s team

should stand firm on this one, even if it means retaliation. Thirty-five per cent would put it on the table as a last resort and just 15 per cent would offer to end quotas and price controls.

  • Today’s Data: Canada international securities transactions, United States retail sales, NAHB housing market index
  • Earnings: Netflix Inc., PepsiCo Inc., General Electric Co., Choice Properties Real Estate, U.S. Bancorp, Abbott Laboratories, Marsh & McLennan Cos Inc.

  • Canadians are finally getting choice in their banking, but will it last?
  • Car prices were supposed to spike because of tariffs but didn’t. It could still happen
  • Carney says Canada to curb steel imports to protect industry

At 66, Douglas is getting mixed messages from advisers. His financial adviser wants him to leave the money he has in his registered accounts to grow while his accountant says it is time to start drawing down those funds to minimize tax. Family Finance has some suggestions that would allow Douglas to withdraw an extra $4,500 a year and save on taxes, but he has to wait two years.

Find out more

Send us your summer job search stories

Recently, we published a feature on the

death of the summer job

as student unemployment reaches crisis levels. We want to hear directly from Canadians aged 15-24 about their summer job search.

Send us your story, in 50-100 words, and we’ll publish the best submissions in an upcoming edition of the Financial Post.

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under the subject heading “Summer job stories.” Please include your name, your age, the city and province where you reside, and a phone number to reach you.

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McLister on mortgages

Want to learn more about mortgages? Mortgage strategist Robert McLister’s

Financial Post column

can help navigate the complex sector, from the latest trends to financing opportunities you won’t want to miss. Plus check his

mortgage rate page

for Canada’s lowest national mortgage rates, updated daily.

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Today’s Posthaste was written by Pamela Heaven with additional reporting from Financial Post staff, The Canadian Press and Bloomberg.

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  • Why more economists think the Bank of Canada is done cutting interest rates

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