Hoping for a pickup in the

housing market

? You may have to wait a while longer.

Canada’s reluctant rally is now unlikely to come before fall, after home prices “flatlined” during what is normally the busiest buying season of the year, says a

forecast released today

by one of the country’s top real estate companies.

The national aggregate home price rose just 0.3 per cent in the second quarter from the year before, according to

Royal LePage.

The price fell 0.4 per cent from the first quarter.

“The start of the spring market – typically one of the busiest times of year for home buying and selling – was noticeably subdued in several regions this year, namely in Toronto and Vancouver, two of the country’s largest and most expensive markets,” said the report.

“Amid global political and economic uncertainty, many homebuyers continued to take a cautious, wait-and-see approach.”

Royal LePage covers 64 markets in its report and prices fell in 26 of them, most of them in Ontario. In 38 cities prices either rose or remained flat.

The real estate company also cut its national forecast “modestly” because of the “slower than usual” sales in Ontario and British Columbia. It now sees prices rising 3.5 per cent in the fourth quarter from the same time last year.

“Given the backdrop of global economic uncertainty and cautious sentiment at home, we expect steady but uneven progress across regional markets this summer, rather than a broad-based rally,” said Royal LePage chief executive Phil Soper.

“With borrowing costs stable and inventory levels continuing to build, the foundation is in place for a stronger market this fall – and signs of renewed confidence are beginning to emerge.”

Donald Trump’s tariff threats

have left Canadians nervous about the economy and their jobs. Though interest rates have dropped, the

Bank of Canada

has held its benchmark rate for the last two meetings, and there’s a strong chance it could do so again this month.

Buyers are making their way back into the housing market, “but it’s far from a stampede,” said Robert Hogue, an economist with

Royal Bank of Canada

,

in a separate report. 

Local real estate boards reported modest upticks in sales in June but this only reversed a fraction of the pullbacks earlier this year, he said. The

Canadian Real Estate Association

is expected to release national data today.

“While any positive development in the trade war would boost confidence and keep the housing market on a recovery course, we think the impact would most likely be gradual, especially in regions struggling with affordability,” he wrote.

Of course, location matters in real estate. Toronto and Vancouver suffered some of the biggest declines, with prices dropping 3 and 2.6 per cent in the second quarter, respectively.

But in other markets — including Montreal, Halifax, Regina, Winnipeg and Edmonton — prices rose.

Quebec City once again came out on top. For the fifth quarter in a row, this city achieved the biggest gains nationwide, said Royal LePage, with prices up 13.5 per cent year over year.

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Is this what de-dollarization looks like?

The

International Monetary Fund

‘s latest report on where countries are putting their money in foreign exchange reserves reveals that the U.S. dollar’s share fell again in the first quarter of this year. The decline continues a “de-dollarization” trend that has been going on since the early 2000s, according to this chart from National Bank of Canada.

The 57.7 per cent USD allocation is only a little higher than the record low of 57.3 per cent hit in the third quarter of 2024, said National economists.

Mind you, that is still the lion’s share of the market. After the greenback, the euro is the next biggest, holding 20 per cent of allocations. The

Canadian dollar

has just 2.6 per cent.

  • Today’s Data: Canada and United States consumer price indices for June, Canada existing home sales, Canada manufacturing sales for May
  • Earnings: Cogeco Communications Inc., Blackrock Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co., Bank of New York Mellon Corp., Wells Fargo & Co., Citigroup Inc. Omnicom Group Inc.

  • Canadian tech startups are embracing the EU. But can they escape the pull of the U.S.?
  • The key to investing once you’ve built wealth
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You’ve taken risks, made sacrifices, and worked relentlessly to create financial security. Now, the challenge is different: to protect what you’ve built, grow it responsibly, and use it to live well — while leaving a meaningful legacy. It’s a shift that requires more than just a new strategy. It demands a new mindset, writes investing pro Martin Pelletier.

Find out more about the transition

from wealth accumulation to wealth preservation.

Send us your summer job search stories

Recently, we published a feature on the

death of the summer job

as student unemployment reaches crisis levels. We want to hear directly from Canadians aged 15-24 about their summer job search.

Send us your story, in 50-100 words, and we’ll publish the best submissions in an upcoming edition of the Financial Post.

You can submit your story by email to

fp_economy@postmedia.com

under the subject heading “Summer job stories.” Please include your name, your age, the city and province where you reside, and a phone number to reach you.

Are you worried about having enough for retirement? Do you need to adjust your portfolio? Are you starting out or making a change and wondering how to build wealth? Are you trying to make ends meet? Drop us a line at wealth@postmedia.com with your contact info and the gist of your problem and we’ll find some experts to help you out while writing a Family Finance story about it (we’ll keep your name out of it, of course).

McLister on mortgages

Want to learn more about mortgages? Mortgage strategist Robert McLister’s

Financial Post column

can help navigate the complex sector, from the latest trends to financing opportunities you won’t want to miss. Plus check his

mortgage rate page

for Canada’s lowest national mortgage rates, updated daily.

Financial Post on YouTube

Visit the Financial Post’s

YouTube channel

for interviews with Canada’s leading experts in business, economics, housing, the energy sector and more.

Today’s Posthaste was written by Pamela Heaven with additional reporting from Financial Post staff, The Canadian Press and Bloomberg.

Have a story idea, pitch, embargoed report, or a suggestion for this newsletter? Email us at 

posthaste@postmedia.com

.

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